Tuesday, 30 September 2008

claidheamhmor: (Pentagram)
When it comes to spotting and countering what I like to call "quackery", a touchstone I like to use is what I think of as the "real life test". I don't remember where I first saw it (probably James Randi's column), but this is how it goes:

If some or other paranormal phenomenon actually existed, then it would have had certain obvious real world effects. Where are these real world effects?

For example:

Homeopathy:
If homeopathy actually worked, we'd expect certain real world effects. For example, the pharmaceutical giants would be selling it, after having had it tested and approved by the FDA. Homeopathy would be incorporated into all pharmacy courses at university. Doctors would all be trained in homeopathy, and there would be prescribed dosage tables. None of these have happened...

Mediums: Beyond the grave
If mediums (even a very small percentage of people) could really speak to those who have died, there would be some obvious real world effects. For example, to a large degree, detectives might become redundant, because a medium could simply ask a murder victim who the killer was (or provide description or circumstances, etc.). There would be legal mechanisms for admitting statements by mediums in court cases. Mediums would be able to assist in very specific queries - like finding out from the deceased where he put his will, or his house keys, or whatever. So, where are these services?

Psychics: Mind-readers and clairvoyants
If psychics could really do what they claimed, some of the real world effects could be: all police services would employ psychics to use in investigations and interrogations (after all, imagine an interrogator who could read minds). The CIA and MI6 would employ clairvoyants for spying and investigations. Private investigators would employ psychics (or would *be* psychics). Madeleine McCann would not still be missing.

Astrology
If astrology worked and claimed, you would see things like astrologers being very wealthy, thanks to repeatedly winning race betting or lotteries. (In fact, such things of chance would probably be killed off very quickly). Relationship counsellors and psychologists would be astrologers. Astrology would be offered as a course at all universities. Most celestial bodies would be discovered by astrologers. FEMA would employ astrologers to plan for future natural disasters. Investment banks would employ astrologers in order to manage stock market fluctuations. All babies born in the same hospital at the same time would have very similar personalities, so many hospitals would keep birth records for people to be able to track down their soulmates years later. Yet somehow, astrologers are relegated to newspaper and magazine horoscopes, and writing fuzzy (and inaccurate) books on relationships.

Alternative medicine: Acupuncture, phrenology, reflexology
While alternative medicine might provide a placebo effect, if it actually worked, it would be a requirement in all medical degrees, the big pharmaceutical and medical supplies companies would be selling the equipment in bulk to hospitals, and there would be clearly defined guides to needle/foot locations used by all medical practitioners.

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